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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 14

New York Giants 27 – New Orleans Saints 34

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.52 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 14, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP