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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 75

New York Giants 10 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 15-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 25 for 6 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 41-M.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.06 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model