4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 32

New Orleans Saints 24 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.18 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP