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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 23

New York Giants 24 – New Orleans Saints 34

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 34-D.Zvada 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.39 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model