Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 56

Denver Broncos 14 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(12:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model