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Seattle Seahawks

3-3 HC Mike Macdonald
@
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Denver Broncos

4-2 HC Sean Payton
Thursday 2026-10-15 · 20:15 ET Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

SEA
40.7%
DEN
59.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.004 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Drew Lock (SEA): -0.018 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22 15–29
–
DEN 23 16–30
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

SEA

Chazz Surratt LB Out Calf
Drake Thomas LB Out Ankle
Zach Charbonnet RB Out Knee

DEN

Talanoa Hufanga S Out Ankle
Pat Surtain II CB Out Ankle
Riley Moss CB Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 14
–
DEN 17

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:35 FG SEA (6:35) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – DEN 0
  • Q2 12:56 TD DEN (12:56) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – DEN 6
  • Q2 05:19 TD DEN (5:19) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 12-R.Harvey. 12-R.Harvey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – DEN 13
  • Q4 05:47 TD SEA (5:47) (No Huddle) 36-G.Holani right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – DEN 14
  • Q4 00:07 FG SEA (:07) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 14 – DEN 14
  • Q5 04:57 FG DEN (4:57) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on SEA-13-E.Jones, Leverage, declined. SEA 14 – DEN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 16 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 28%

    (10:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to DEN 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to SEA 45, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 64%

    (6:35) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 35%

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie up the middle to SEA 42 for 6 yards (13-E.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 43%

    (9:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 24 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:49) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 81%

    (8:34) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 20 for 13 yards (26-D.Key).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 19 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims to DEN 26 for 17 yards (46-J.Ciarlo; 81-E.Saubert). PENALTY on DEN-37-S.Fresch, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to SEA 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for -4 yards (46-A.Prentice). PENALTY on SEA-52-P.O'Connell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 34.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 18 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 40%

    (12:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to SEA 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 8 yards (34-J.Skinner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 59%

    (7:50) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 32 for 7 yards (23-J.Barron).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 20 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:31) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to SEA 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 46 for 31 yards (16-J.Crawshaw).

    See the full breakdown →