4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 24 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model