Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims to DEN 26 for 17 yards (46-J.Ciarlo; 81-E.Saubert). PENALTY on DEN-37-S.Fresch, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model