Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 67

Denver Broncos 14 – Seattle Seahawks 11

(1:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 46 for 31 yards (16-J.Crawshaw).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.74 EP
63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -2.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model