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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 37

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.50 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP