4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model