Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 87

Denver Broncos 14 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to SEA 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for -4 yards (46-A.Prentice). PENALTY on SEA-52-P.O'Connell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.87 EP
58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 87, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model