Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 75

Denver Broncos 14 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(9:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to SEA 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 8 yards (34-J.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.43 EP
57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model