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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 51

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to DEN 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.87 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model