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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(7:50) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 32 for 7 yards (23-J.Barron).

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model