Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 82

Denver Broncos 14 – Seattle Seahawks 11

(3:31) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to SEA 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.43 EP
74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model