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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 48

Denver Broncos 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:46) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie up the middle to SEA 42 for 6 yards (13-E.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.26 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model