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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 59

Denver Broncos 14 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 20 for 13 yards (26-D.Key).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model