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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 46

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.18 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model