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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.82 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model