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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.73 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP