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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.10 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model