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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to BAL 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model