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Baltimore Ravens

4-2 HC Jesse Minter
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Cleveland Browns

4-2 HC Todd Monken
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

BAL
59.8%
CLE
40.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.137 vs Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.039 EPA/dropback
  • BAL defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BAL 24 17–31
–
CLE 20 13–27
Projected margin: BAL by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

BAL

Lamar Jackson QB Out Ankle
Broderick Washington DE Out Ankle
Cam Jurgens C Out Concussion
Matthew Hibner TE Out Hand
Andrew Vorhees G Questionable Foot
Emery Jones Jr. G Questionable Ankle
Ja'Kobi Lane WR Questionable Wrist

CLE

Teven Jenkins G Out Back
Kalia Davis DT Out Quadricep
Mike Hall Jr. DT Out Ankle
Dylan Sampson RB Out Knee
Dillon Gabriel QB Out Back
Derek Barnett DE Questionable Ankle
Carson Schwesinger LB Questionable Ankle
Mason Graham DT Questionable Knee
Quinshon Judkins RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 10
–
CLE 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:14 TD BAL (8:14) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 85-J.Cuevas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-C.Williams]. BAL 6 – CLE 0
  • Q1 04:40 FG BAL (4:40) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. BAL 10 – CLE 0
  • Q3 07:53 FG CLE (7:53) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 10 – CLE 3
  • Q4 08:37 TD CLE (8:37) 36-A.Estime right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – CLE 9
  • Q4 00:00 FG CLE (:00) 25-A.Szmyt 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 10 – CLE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (8:14) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 85-J.Cuevas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-C.Williams].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 13 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to BAL 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 39 for 5 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold; 11-M.Corley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (4:40) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to CLE 4, impetus ends at CLE 1, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to BAL 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:20) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to CLE 33, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 45%

    (6:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:42) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BAL 32, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:07) 30-R.Eckley punts 52 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (12:41) 34-M.Burton up the middle to CLE 39 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith; 32-T.Simpson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (7:53) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 33%

    (4:58) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to BAL 30, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 40 for 10 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%

    (14:18) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to BAL 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (7:09) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-N.Moore. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 40 for 13 yards (39-K.Jackson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (3:44) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →