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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to BAL 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 39 for 5 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold; 11-M.Corley).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.07 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 36, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model