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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 85-J.Cuevas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-C.Williams].

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.07 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 2, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model