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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model