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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 30

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model