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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model