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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 86

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to BAL 30, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 40 for 10 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.88 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model