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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-N.Moore. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 40 for 13 yards (39-K.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.30 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP