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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.23 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model