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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to CLE 4, impetus ends at CLE 1, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model