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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.69 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model