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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model