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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 34-M.Burton up the middle to CLE 39 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith; 32-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.27 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model