Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

(2:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.89 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -2.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model