Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(11:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to BAL 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.63 EP
56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model