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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model