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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to CLE 33, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.92 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP