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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BAL 32, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.82 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model