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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PIT 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.85 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model