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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 42

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to HOU 6, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP