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Houston Texans

2-4 HC DeMeco Ryans
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Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 09:30 ET Wembley Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

HOU
38.9%
JAX
61.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): +0.280 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • HOU crossing 6 time zone(s)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

HOU 23 16–30
–
JAX 27 20–34
Projected margin: JAX by 4 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

HOU

David Montgomery RB Out Groin
Jalen Pitre S Out Shoulder
Tank Dell WR Out Knee
Ja'Marcus Ingram CB Questionable Elbow
Henry To'oTo'o LB Questionable Shoulder

JAX

Ross Matiscik LS Out Shoulder
Montaric Brown CB Out Hamstring
Jaylon Jones CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 34
–
JAX 31

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:15 TD HOU (5:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 06:56 TD JAX (6:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 33-B.Tuten for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-0-A.Al-Shaair was injured during the play. HOU 7 – JAX 6
  • Q2 04:18 FG HOU (4:18) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. HOU 10 – JAX 7
  • Q2 00:59 TD JAX (:59) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 33-B.Tuten for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – JAX 13
  • Q2 00:12 TD HOU (:12) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – JAX 14
  • Q3 09:26 TD HOU (9:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – JAX 14
  • Q3 02:37 TD JAX (2:37) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 87-N.Boerkircher for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 24 – JAX 20
  • Q3 00:58 TD HOU (:58) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 25-J.Jordan left tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 30 – JAX 21
  • Q4 11:30 TD JAX (11:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 12-T.Hunter for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 31 – JAX 27
  • Q4 02:00 FG JAX (2:00) 39-C.Little 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 31 – JAX 31
  • Q4 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. HOU 34 – JAX 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 53%

    (12:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to HOU 6, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:21) 38-K.Kroeger punts 53 yards to JAX 38, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington to JAX 45 for 7 yards (87-F.Moreau).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 66%

    (8:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (11-T.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:20) 38-K.Kroeger punts 50 yards to JAX 21, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (4:18) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to HOU 8, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-J.Noel to HOU 16 for 8 yards (31-J.Tavai). PENALTY on HOU-27-K.Ramsey, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 10.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:38) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to JAX 31, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 42 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 53%

    (2:00) 39-C.Little 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 77%

    (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →