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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 32

Houston Texans 31 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.05 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model