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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (11-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.90 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model