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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 7

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +3.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.40 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP