Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to HOU 8, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-J.Noel to HOU 16 for 8 yards (31-J.Tavai). PENALTY on HOU-27-K.Ramsey, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model