Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 76

Houston Texans 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

(5:38) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to JAX 31, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.84 EP
51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model