Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 91

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(11:21) 38-K.Kroeger punts 53 yards to JAX 38, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington to JAX 45 for 7 yards (87-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.23 EP
58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 91, worth -5.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model